An exceptional microeconomic performance in a very buoyant macroeconomic context: or how to explain this incredible stock market behaviour. The investment risk changes: the economic risk decreases but the positioning risk increases. What can we expect for the coming months, is it too late to get exposure to the winning themes, what are the real […]
A before and an after? To what extent the health crisis has changed habits? Is there a future for the seasonal flu? Will teleworking employees come back to the office? Will the real estate price gap between Paris and the provinces narrow? We will not provide any answer to the aforementioned questions because it goes […]
We can question the fundamental value of certain goods like copper, the bitcoin or an Empire-era semainier. The problem with these three assets is that they do not detached dividends, so it is difficult to value them from a financial point of view. Their value lies in the utility they provide and their price is […]
The theme of a “two-speed Europe” is now ten years old. It was born in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis on the observation that the countries of the South had more difficulty to recover. The climax was reached in 2012 with the euro crisis. The extent of the divergence between “central” and “peripheral” […]
REMINDER OF ECONOMIC AGGREGATES The management of the sanitary crisis has led to an unprecedented deployment of public money. We will see what are the transmission channels between monetary authorities, governments and private economic agents. Before starting, it seems necessary to recontextualize the amounts at stake. To hear that the public debt in France exceeds […]
Many economists are worried about Europe. With an adverse demographic trend and a lack of leadership in the technological field, Europe seems doomed to a tragic fate of economic stagnation and public debt. The most pessimistic speak of the Japanification of the economy in the sense that Japan already has these two unenviable characteristics. The […]
THE GAME FOR LISTED COMPANIES: EXCEED EXPECTATIONS AT THE EARNINGS SEASON Investor relations officers of listed companies have long understood the value of positively surprising investors when earnings are released. By creating a positive shock to expectations, the stock price is likely to react positively. So, the game is no longer to publish good results, […]
The last few months have shown no improvement. The trade deficit remains at a historically high level. It is in the order of 5 billion euros per month (60 billion per year) and the energy bill accounts for only 1/3 of this deficit. There are about 128,000 French companies exporting goods and services. The analysis […]
In 2017 Trump made a nice gift to companies by lowering the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%. Corporates weren’t specifically asking for it, but Trump was convinced that such a tax cut would encourage companies to spend more on investment and wages. It is difficult to conclude today on the effectiveness of this […]
THE GDP PROFIT SHARE IS NOT STABLE Emerging countries are appreciated by asset allocators, especially in Europe. The reason is very simple: economic growth is stronger there than elsewhere. This idea that higher economic performance will translate into stronger performance of equity indices is widely accepted. It also legitimates the so-called top-down approach, which consists […]